Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.

Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.

Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Toronto-Dominion Bank?

The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD Quick QuoteTD - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) eight days from its next quarterly earnings release on May 28, 2026, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $1.63 a share.

Toronto-Dominion Bank's Earnings ESP sits at +1.04%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.63 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.61. TD is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

TD is part of a big group of Finance stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS Quick QuoteBNS - Free Report) as well.

Bank of Nova Scotia is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on May 27, 2026. BNS' Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.46 a share seven days from its next earnings release.

Bank of Nova Scotia's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +1.39% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.44.

TD and BNS' positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>